Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
